报告题目：Haste or Waste? The Role of Presale in Residential Housing

主讲人：周启曜，美国马里兰大学经济学博士候选人，即将入职俄克拉荷马州立大学商学院担任助理教授。研究领域包括产业组织、城市与房地产经济学。当前研究成果发表于Environmental and Resource Economics等国际学术期刊。

时 间：2024年3月28日（周四），10:00-11:30

地 点：腾讯线上会议

摘 要：

This paper provides the first theory and evidence on the role of presale policies in the residential housing market. We start with constructing a novel dataset of unfinished projects, presale policies, and land auction outcomes across 270 major cities in China. We then identify 2,330 unfinished residential projects from 2010 to 2017 on a citizen complaint website run by the central government. We find that both presale criterion and postsale supervision of construction costs relate to a lower probability of unfinished projects. But only presale criterion relates negatively to the pace of new housing development, measured by developers' multitasking and land auction outcomes. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the average bundle of presale policies is inferior to the Pareto frontier in our sampled cities. Tightening the regulation on postsale supervision by 2 standard deviations may lead to a 58% reduction in the occurrence of unfinished projects, while keeping the pace of new housing development unchanged. Eliminating unfinished projects would entail a drastic increase in both presale criterion and postsale supervision, with slower housing development.