报告题目：Uncertainty and Unemployment Revisited: The Consequences of Financial and Labor Contracting Frictions

主讲人：王雅洁，中国人民大学经济学与数学双学士，罗切斯特大学经济学博士，现任密苏里大学助理教授。主要研究领域为宏观经济学、劳动力和金融市场，尤其关注微观层面摩擦的宏观含义，及其与宏观经济政策的相互影响。她的研究同时应用实证、理论及量化方法。2021年获得美国统计局的Special Sworn Status资格。博士阶段获一系列奖学金，包括自然科学基金的博士论文奖等。

时 间：2024年6月12日（周三），12:30-14:00

地 点：经济楼A101

简 介：This paper revisits how uncertainty affects unemployment. Using U.S. Census employer-employee data, it finds that elevated uncertainty increases layoffs in financially constrained firms, an observation not predicted by standard search models where uncertainty freezes layoffs via irreversible search costs. A newly constructed search model can replicate the empirical evidence by incorporating financial and labor contracting frictions, so wage bills act as debt-like commitments, which firms are averse to taking on when uncertainty raises firm default risks. The model captures the increases in unemployment observed during U.S. past recessions, attributing over 70% of uncertainty’s impact on unemployment to the two contracting frictions.