报告题目：不确定性冲击的企业资产负债表传导渠道

主讲人：Wentao Zhou is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Michigan State University. His research uses quantitative models and microdata to understand how financial frictions and firm expectations influence firm dynamics, resource allocation, shock transmission, and business cycle fluctuations. His Ph.D. dissertation, "The Firm Balance Sheet Channel of Uncertainty Shocks," has received multiple awards, including the Northern Finance Association Best Ph.D. Paper Award, sponsored by the Bank of Canada. The paper was also one of five presented at the 2023 U.S. Department of Treasury Office of Financial Research Ph.D. Symposium. Wentao earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and interned at the IMF's Strategy, Policy, and Review Department.

时 间：2024年12月11日（周三），12:30-14:00

地 点：经济楼A102

简 介：本文研究了宏观不确定性冲击通过企业资产负债表调整进行传导的机制。利用企业层面数据，我发现企业在面对不确定性增加时，会减少资本投资和债务，同时增加现金持有。这些调整模式因企业初始债务水平的不同而有所差异。为了解释这些现象，我构建了一个定量异质性企业模型，其中金融摩擦促使企业产生谨慎行为。在该模型中，企业权衡资本投资、降低债务和增加现金持有的选择，因为更高的不确定性加剧了流动性短缺的风险。在校准后的模型中，考虑了这一传导机制，宏观不确定性增加能够解释美国经济衰退的若干关键特征：它引发了剧烈的经济衰退，同时伴随着微观波动性上升、资本配置恶化以及财政刺激效果减弱。这些影响在金融市场受扰动的背景下尤为显著，此时企业的谨慎行为进一步加剧了不确定性冲击的影响。此外，该渠道揭示了信贷政策的一种新的稳定作用。尽管信贷干预几乎无法抵消一阶冲击的影响，但它可以通过缓解资产负债表传导机制来稳定由不确定性驱动的经济衰退。